Política monetaria, crecimiento, deuda y mercado de valores en Estados Unidos 2000-2020: lecciones para la era post-pandemia Covid-19

• Verónica Cerezo García ^[1] ; Heri Oscar Landa Díaz ^[2] ; Ignacio Perrotini Hernández ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

     Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

     México

     
  2. [2] Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana

     Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana

     México

     
• Localización: Contaduría y administración, ISSN 0186-1042, ISSN-e 2448-8410, Vol. 66, Nº. Extra 5, 2021 (Ejemplar dedicado a: lecciones de la pandemia de Covid-2019)
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.22201/fca.24488410e.2021.3328
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Monetary policy, growth, debt, and the stock market in the USA, 2000-2020:: some lessons for the Covid-19 post-pandemic
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la relación entre la política monetaria de la Fed, la deuda pública de Estados Unidos y el mercado de valores durante el periodo 2000-2020. Estimamos funciones de reacción ante variaciones de la deuda para evaluar: el efecto sobre el desempeño bursátil; el impacto sobre la dinámica del PIB; el efecto sobre la estabilidad de precios y las implicaciones para la tasa de interés.

    Nuestra hipótesis es que el principal efecto, asociado a la expansión de la deuda, es sobre el mercado de valores, la respuesta del índice bursátil ante un incremento de la deuda pública es significativamente elástica. Este resultado es consistente con la hipótesis de que la compra de títulos del gobierno que realiza la Fed (incrementos en la hoja de balance) tiene como principal objetivo aumentar la liquidez para morigerar la inestabilidad del sistema financiero resultante de las crisis de 2008 y 2020.

  • English

    The aim of this paper is look at the relationship between the Fed’s monetary policy, the USA’s debt, and the stock market over the period 2000-2020. Reaction functions to assess the effect of debt variations on the stock market, GDP, price stability and the rate of interest are elaborated. By way of hypothesis, it is argued that the main effect, associated with debt expansion, goes to the stock market as its main index is significantly elastic to public debt increments. This result is consistent with the Fed interventions to improve liquidity with a view to stabilize the financial system after both the 2007/2008 financial crisis and the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic

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