El papel de la propensión al riesgo en las decisiones de voto: El caso de las elecciones mexicanas del año 2000

• F. Ponce, Aldo ^[1] ; Mena-Mora, Amalia ^[1] ; Rottinghaus, Brandon ^[1]
  1. [1] University of Houston

     University of Houston

     Estados Unidos

     
• Localización: Política y gobierno, ISSN 1405-1060, ISSN-e 1685-2037, Vol. 19, Nº. 1, 2012, págs. 71-99
• Idioma: español
• Títulos paralelos:
  • The Role of Risk Propensity in Shaping Voting Behavior: The Case of the 2000 Mexican Election
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    Importantes estudios han evaluado el papel de la propensión al riesgo en las decisiones de voto en México. Sin embargo, ninguna de estas investigaciones ha evaluado el grado en el que los efectos de corto y largo plazos de las campañas electorales influyen en la disposición de un elector adverso al riesgo a votar por un partido de oposición. A partir de los datos de la elección de 2000, una campaña en la que la propensión al riesgo desempeñó un papel relevante, evaluamos si otros factores asociados con la campaña mitigaron el efecto negativo de la propensión al riesgo (mayor aversión al riesgo) en las decisiones al momento de votar por algún candidato de la oposición. Encontramos que la propensión al riesgo tiene un impacto determinista en la decisión del voto y que ni los factores asociados a la campaña electoral (corto plazo), ni la imagen, en muchos casos deteriorada, del Partido Revolucionario Institucional (pri) (largo plazo) mitigaron ese papel. Además, demostramos que el impacto determinista de la propensión al riesgo puede variar durante el periodo de campaña y de acuerdo con las alternativas electorales.

  • English

    Previous important studies examine the role of “risk” propensity in shaping vote choices in Mexico. However, none of these studies determine the degree to which short and long term factors influence a traditionally risk averse respondent’s enthusiasm to vote for an opposition party. Using data from the 2000 election, a campaign where risk played a significant role, we evaluate whether various effects mitigate the role of risk in voting for an opposition candidate. We find that risk propensity has a deterministic impact on vote choice and no amount of campaign effects (short term) or negative image of the pri (long term) mitigated that role. Yet, we uniquely show that this deterministic impact can vary over the campaign period and across the electoral alternatives.

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