La economía de la pandemia: efectos, medidas y perspectivas económicas ante la pandemia de la COVID-19 en el sector manufacturero de México

• Víctor Hugo Torres Preciado ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de Colima

     Universidad de Colima

     México

     
• Localización: Contaduría y administración, ISSN 0186-1042, ISSN-e 2448-8410, Vol. 65, Nº. Extra 5, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Especial COVID-19)
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.22201/fca.24488410e.2020.3022
• Títulos paralelos:
  • The economics of pandemics: Effects, measures and economic perspectives in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic in the manufacturing sector in Mexico
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Dialnet Métricas: 7 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de esta investigación consiste en analizar los efectos que algunas medidas de contención de la pandemia de la COVID 19 pudieron ejercer en el funcionamiento del sector manufacturero mexicano. En particular, mediante un modelo económico-epidemiológico de vectores autoregresivos que busca aproximar la secuencia de efectos observados ante el brote de contagios, se analizan los efectos dinámicos de variaciones inesperadas en variables económicas clave. Se enfatiza la respuesta del consumo, empleo y producción en el sector manufacturero través de un análisis contrafactual a partir del mes en que inicia la pandemia en México. Los resultados sugieren que el consumo es una variable que incentivada mediante medidas económicas y protocolos de seguridad sanitaria adecuados, puede contribuir a la estabilización de la economía. Un resultado notable sugiere que los brotes de enfermedades con un daño potencial a la salud humana similares a la COVID 19, tendría efectos negativos directos en la economía.

  • English

    The objective of this investigation consists in analyzing the effects that some measures intended to content the 19-nCoV pandemic may exert in the functioning of the Mexican manufacturing sector. In particular, by means of implementing an autoregressive economic-epidemiologic vector model aimed to approach the observed effects after the rise in number of contagions, it is analyzed the dynamic effects of unexpected variations in key economic variables. Emphasis is paid in the responses of consumption, employment and production in the manufacturing sector through counterfactual analysis since the month the pandemics begun in Mexico. Results suggest incentivizing consumption with adequate economic measures and sanitary protocols may contribute to stabilizing the economy. A notable result suggests that rises in the number of diseases cases with potential damage to human health, similar to that of the 2019-nCoV, would directly harm the economy

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