Determination of women’s voting behavior; A machine learning approach in the Turkish political arena

Nizamettin Bayyurt; Havva Çaha

Determination of women’s voting behavior; A machine learning approach in the Turkish political arena

Bayyurt, Nizamettin ^[1] ; Çaha, Havva ^[2]
1. [1] Istanbul Technical University
  
  Istanbul Technical University
  
  Turquía
2. [2] Mardin Artuklu University
  
  Mardin Artuklu University
  
  Turquía
Localización: RIMCIS: Revista Internacional y Multidisciplinar en Ciencias Sociales, ISSN-e 2014-3680, Vol. 9, Nº. 3, 2020 (Ejemplar dedicado a: November), págs. 260-288
Idioma: inglés
DOI: 10.17583/rimcis.2020.5027
Títulos paralelos:
- Determinar el comportamiento electoral de las mujeres: una aproximación del aprendizaje automático a la arena política turca
Enlaces
- Texto completo (pdf)
Resumen
- español
  El partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo (AKP) ha sido el mayor y predominante en Turquía desde que se estableció en 2002, y el partido de la República del Pueblo (CHP) ha sido el principal partido opositor desde entonces. Ambos partidos reciben alrededor del 75% de todos los votos. En Turquía la mitad de los votantes son mujeres. En este estudio se analizan los atributos más importantes en la decisión de las mujeresde escoger partido. No hay un estudio centrado en las preferencias políticas de las mujeres en Turquía. Además, este es uno de los pocos estudios sobre las preferencias de los votantes en Turquía. De ahí que este estudio pretenda llenar este vacío en la literatura.Dos de las principales teorías para explicar la vida política turca son la del centro-periferia y la de la movilidad social. En base a estas teorías se han escogido las características de los apoyos femeninos, tales como las ideológicas, las culturales, las religiosas, las sociales, las económicas y la demográficas. Se han usado técnicas de aprendizaje automático como herramientas predictivas. Los resultados muestran que las actitudes ideológicas como ser de izquierdas o ser de derechas y los valores religiosos como llevar velo, ayunar en Ramadán y rezar son los atributos más importantes y efectivos en la selección de partidos por parte de las mujeres. Sin embargo, los atributos socio-económicos, culturales, educativos y demográficos no son efectivos en la elección de partidos de las mujeres en Turquía.
- English
  Justice and Development Party (AKP) has been the ruling and biggest party in Turkey (AKP) since it has been established in 2002 and Republican People’s Party (CHP) has been the main opposition party (CHP) since then. These two parties receive about 75% of all the votes and half of the voters are females. To our knowledge, there is no such a study focusing on women’s party preferences in Turkey. Additionally, this is one of the very few studies in Turkey concerning voters’ party preferences. Therefore, this study aims to fill this gap in the literature. In this study, the important attributes of women in party selection decisions are analyzed. Center-periphery and social mobility theories are the two main theories explaining Turkish political life. The analyzed ideological, cultural, religious, social, economic and demographic characteristics of women supporters are selected according to these theories. Machine-learning techniques are employed as predictive tools. Results show that ideological attitudes like being leftist-rightist and religious values like headscarf, fasting in Ramadan, and praying are the most important effective attributes on party selection of women. However, socioeconomic, cultural, educational and demographic atributes are not effective on party selection of women in Turkey.
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