The behaviour of social transfers over the business cycle: empirical evidence of Uruguay

• Leonel Muinelo Gallo ^[1] ; Ronald Miranda Lescano ^{[1] [2]}
  1. [1] Universidad de la República

     Universidad de la República

     Uruguay

     
  2. [2] Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

     Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona

     Barcelona, España

     
• Localización: Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, ISSN 0210-1173, Nº 233, 2020, págs. 25-54
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.7866/HPE-RPE.20.2.2
• Enlaces
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• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    Este artículo analiza las fluctuaciones cíclicas de las transferencias públicas sociales monetarias, y sus diferentes componentes, en Uruguay durante el período comprendido entre 1988/Q1 y 2016/Q3. Los componentes cíclicos no observables se extraen de las series temporales observables utilizando dife- rentes estrategias empíricas. Los resultados muestran que los diferentes componentes de estas transfe- rencias son procíclicos y se encuentran rezagados respecto a las fluctuaciones macroeconómicas. De- bido a ello, en lugar de contribuir a estabilizar la economía, estas transferencias han agravado el ciclo económico y, a través de sus diversas partidas de gasto, han expuesto a los grupos más vulnerables de la sociedad a condiciones económicas más adversas.

  • English

    This paper analyses the cyclical fluctuations of public social cash transfers and its components in Uru- guay over 1988/Q1 to 2016/Q3. The unobservable cyclical components are extracted from the observ- able time series using different empirical strategies. The results show that components of public social cash transfers are procyclical and lag the macroeconomics fluctuations. This enables us to say that in- stead of these cash transfers contributing to stabilizing the Uruguayan economy they have thereby aggravated the business cycle, and through various expenditure items expose the vulnerable groups of society to more adverse economic conditions.

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