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“Effect on trade” is seeing a renaissance in decisional practice in the field of state aid. The Commission is refining its approach to assessing whether potential aid measures affect trade between Member States such as to engage art.107 TFEU. The present contribution analyses the systemic implications of this shift, and argues that the refined approach re-balances the application of the “liable to affect trade” test as developed in case law. This test, and thus the outer limit of the notion of state aid, is analysed in light of related rules, especially de minimis rules in state aid law, and competition law rules on effect on trade. In this light, the Commission’s reasoning in relevant cases is assessed as robust, whereas the general approach is seen as coming with some challenges, especially for use at the national level. However, the approach is promising enough that it deserves the support of the Courts in Luxembourg, the first signs of which are now showing.
