Modelos centrados vs descentrados para la predicción de quiebra: evidencia empírica para España

• Gonzalo Laguillo ^[1] ; Agustín del Castillo ^[1] ; Manuel Ángel Fernández ^[1] ; Rafael Becerra ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de Málaga

     Universidad de Málaga

     Málaga, España

     
• Localización: Contaduría y administración, ISSN 0186-1042, ISSN-e 2448-8410, Vol. 64, Nº. 2, 2019
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.22201/fca.24488410e.2018.1779
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Focused vs unfocused models for bankruptcy prediction: Empirical evidence for Spain
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Dialnet Métricas: 2 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    Usando información financiera de empresas españolas pertenecientes a distintos sectores económicos, este estudio ha desarrollado modelos centrados y descentrados para la predicción de quiebra. La comparación de ambos tipos de modelos nos ha permitido determinar la superioridad de los modelos descentrados, que en la mayor parte de los casos muestran una gran capacidad de predicción y un fuerte ahorro de costes de elaboración frente al desarrollo de numerosos modelos centrados. Este estudio también aporta conocimiento acerca de las variables que explican la quiebra en los diferentes sectores económicos y ayuda a la toma de decisiones sobre la utilización de un determinado modelo de predicción de quiebra.

  • English

    Using financial information from Spanish companies belonging to different economic sectors, this study has developed focused and unfocused models for bankruptcy prediction. The comparison of both types of models has allowed us to determine the superiority of unfocused models, which in most cases show a great predictive capacity and reduce the elaboration cost of numerous focused models. This study also provides insight into the variables that explain bankruptcy in different economic sectors and helps decision making on the use of a specific model of bankruptcy prediction

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