Relación entre los gastos e ingresos del gobierno en España, 1958-2014

• Autores: Manuel Jaén García
• Localización: Semestre económico, ISSN-e 0120-6346, Vol. 20, Nº. 45, 2017 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Octubre-Diciembre), págs. 25-49
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.22395/seec.v20n45a1
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    En este artículo se utiliza metodología de cointegración y causalidad en series temporales para analizar la relación ingreso-gasto, gasto-ingreso en la economía española durante el período 1958-2014. Se ha tenido en cuenta el posible cambio estructural en ambas series durante el período objeto de estudio, así como la posible existencia de causalidad tanto a corto como a largo plazo. Los resultados muestran causalidad en la dirección ingreso a gasto, pero no al contrario. Dada la importancia en España de la reducción del déficit público se infiere que es necesario ajustar a la baja el gasto público con el consiguiente perjuicio que se puede producir en el crecimiento económico español.

  • English

    This article uses co-integration and causality methodology in time series to analyze the relationship between income and expenditure, expenditure and income in the Spanish economy during the period 1958-2014. The possible structural change in both series during the period under study has been taken into account, as well as the possible existence of both short-term and long-term causality. The results show causality in the direction of revenue to expenditure, but not the other way around.

    Given the importance of reducing the public deficit in Spain, it states that it is necessary to adjust public expenditure downwards with the consequent damage that may occur in Spain's economic growth.

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