La reversión de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la Zona Euro

• José García Solanes ^[1] ; Fernando Torrejón Flores ^[2] ; Carlos Ruíz Sánchez ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidad de Murcia

     Universidad de Murcia

     Murcia, España

     
  2. [2] Universidad Católica San Antonio

     Universidad Católica San Antonio

     Murcia, España

     
• Localización: Revista de economía mundial, ISSN 1576-0162, Nº 49, 2018, págs. 57-78
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.33776/rem.v0i49.3888
• Títulos paralelos:
  • The Current Account Reversals in the Peripheral Countries of the Eurozone
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    Analizamos aquí las reversiones de las cuentas corrientes en los países periféricos de la zona euro (ZES), Grecia, Italia, España, Portugal e Irlanda, durante los años de la crisis financiera. Después de determinar la tendencia e inicio de estos procesos, investigamos los costes implicados en cada país, utilizando un modelo keynesiano para economías abiertas. Estimamos el modelo con datos de panel del periodo 1999-2013. Nuestros resultados indican que cada país de la muestra sufrió costes significativos en términos de PIB, que van desde 32% en Grecia, hasta 6% en Irlanda. Estos hallazgos nos permiten obtener prescripciones de política económica, tanto para los gobiernos de los ZES como para las autoridades nacionales del núcleo de la zona euro.

  • English

    We analyze the current-account reversals in the peripheral countries of the euro zone (ZES), Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland, during the financial crisis episode. After determining the trend and start date of reversals, we investigate the involved economic costs in each country using a Keynesian model for open economies. We estimate the model with panel data of the period 1999-2013. Our results indicate that each country of the sample suffered significant costs in terms of GDP losses, going from 32% in Greece to 6% in Ireland. Results allow us to derive policy prescriptions for the governments of both peripheral and northern economies of the Eurozone.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Ahearne, A., Schmitz, B. and von Hagen, J. (2009): Current Account Imbalance and Financial Integration in the Euro Area, unpublished manuscript,...
  • Atoyan, R., Manning, J. and Rahman, J. (2013): “Ralancing: Evidence from Current Account Adjustment in Europe”, IMF Working papers 74-2013.
  • Auer, R. (2013): “Rapid Current-account Rebalancing in the Southern Euro-zone” VoxEu.org, mayo 2013.
  • Blanchard, O. and Giavazzi, F. (2002): “Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle”, Brookings Papers...
  • Blanchard, O. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2016): “Global Imbalances: Past, Present, and Future”, Istambul Papers on Current Macro and Financial...
  • Bonatti, L. and Fracasso, A. (2012): “The German Model and the European Crisis”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 51 (6), 1023-1039.
  • Bornhorst, F., and Ivanova, A. (2011): “Current-account Imbalances: Can Structural Policies Make a Difference in Germany?” VoxEU.org, 15 August.
  • Cavallo, M. and Tellie, C. (2006): “Could Capital Gains Smooth a Current Account Rebalancing?” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports,...
  • Darvas, Z. (2012a): “The Limits of a Purely Intra-euro Rebalancing Strategy”, VoxEU.org, September.
  • Darvas, Z. (2012b): “Intra-euro Rebalancing is Inevitable, but Insufficient”. Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2012/15, August.
  • De Grauwe, P. (2012): “In Search of Symmetry in the Eurozone”. Comment of Centre for European Policy Studies, May 2.
  • De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (23013): “The Legacy of Austerity in the Eurozone”, CEPS Commentary, October.
  • Edwards, S. (2004): Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops”, IMF Staff Papers. Special Issue,...
  • Edwards, S. (2005): “The End of Large Current Account Deficits, 1970-2002: Are There Lessons for the United States?, in The Greenspan Era:...
  • European Commission (2012): “Current account surpluses in the EU”, European Economy 9/2012.
  • European Commission (2016): “The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure. Rationale, Process, Application: A Compendium”, European Economy Institutional...
  • García-Solanes, J. Torrejón Flores, F. and Ródenas-Monedero, I (2017): "Ex-change rate and macroeconomic adjustment in souther eurozone...
  • Hobza, A., and Zeugner, S. (2013): “Current-account Surpluses in the Eurozone: Should They Be Reduced?”, VoxEU.org, 26 April.
  • Iversen, T., Soskice, D. and Hope, D. (2016): “The Eurozone and Political Economic Institutions”, Annual Review of Political Science, Vol....
  • Lane, P. (2010): “International Financial Integration and the External Positions of the Euro Area Countries”, OECD Economics Department Working...
  • Lane, P. and Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. (2012): “External Adjustment and the Global Crisis”, Journal of International Economics, 88(2): 252-265.
  • Lane, P. and Pels, B. (2012): “Current Account Imbalances in Europe”, IIIS Discussion Paper No 397, April.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. M. and Blanchard, O. (2011): “(Why) Should Current Account Balance Be Reduced?” IMF Economic Review 60(1), 139-150.
  • Sinn, H. W., and Valentinyi, A. (2013). “European Imbalances”, VoxEU.org, 31 March.
  • Stockhammer, E. and Sotiropoulos, D. (2014): “Rebalancing the Euro Area: The Costs of Internal Devaluation”, Review of Political Economy....
  • Tressel, T., and Wang, S. (2014): “Rebalancing the Euro Area and Cyclicality of Current Account Adjustments”, IMF working papers, 130.
  • Wolff, G. (2012): “Arithmetic is Absolute: Euro-area Adjustment”, Bruegel Policy Contribution, 2012/09, May 2012.
  • Wyplosz, Charles (2010): “Germany, Current Accounts and Competitiveness”, VoxEU.org, 31 March