Banking stability and the financial cycle: the Spanish experience

• Ana Lozano-Vivas ^[1] ; Flores Martínez Alba ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidad de Málaga

     Universidad de Málaga

     Málaga, España

     
  2. [2] Banco Europeo de Finanzas
• Localización: Cuadernos económicos de ICE, ISSN 0210-2633, ISSN-e 2340-9037, Nº 92 (Segundo semestre), 2016 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Una panorámica del sector bancario despues de la crisis), págs. 11-36
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.32796/cice.2016.92.6133
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    En el presente artículo se definen las características del ciclo financiero en España durante el periodo 1995-2016 y, además, se analiza hasta qué punto la estabilidad del Sistema Bancario atenúa o exacerba el ciclo financiero. Los resultados obtenidos en estos dos análisis empíricos ponen de relieve que el ciclo financiero en España se define con precisión por la relación crédito/PIB, el crédito al sector privado no financiero y los precios de los inmuebles residenciales y que la brecha crédito/PIB, respecto a su tendencia a largo, representa un buen indicador adelantado de la crisis bancaria en España. Por otra parte, los resultados indican que una desviación exógena del valor real respecto al valor potencial del ratio provisiones sobre préstamos totales ayuda a suavizar el ciclo. Este último resultado parece indicar que la regulación española de las «provisiones dinámicas» puede ser considerada como una buena herramienta macroprudencial para combatir la prociclicidad del sistema financiero.

  • English

    This paper defines the special characteristics of the financial cycle in Spain during the period 1995-2016 and investigates to what extent the stability of the banking system attenuates or exacerbates the financial cycle. The findings of these two empirical analyses highlight that the financial cycle in Spain is accurately defined by the credit-to-GDP ratio, credit-to-private non-financial sector and residential property prices. Moreover, the credit-to-GDP gap represents a good early warning indicator of the banking crisis in Spain. Finally, an exogenous deviation of actual loan loss provisions-to-total loans ratio from its potential value leads to smoothing of the cycle. Thus, the Spanish dynamic provisions regulation seems to be a good instrument to use as a macroprudential tool to deal with the pro-cyclicality of the financial system.

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