Detecting manipulation in authoritarian elections: Survey-based methods in Zimbabwe

• Michael Bratton ^[1] ; Boniface Dulani ^[2] ; Eldred Masunungure ^[3]
  1. [1] Michigan State University

     Michigan State University

     City of East Lansing, Estados Unidos

     
  2. [2] University of Malawi

     University of Malawi

     Malaui

     
  3. [3] University of Zimbabwe

     University of Zimbabwe

     Zimbabue

     

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• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 42, 2016, págs. 10-21
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2016.01.006
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • This paper explores the feasibility of using social surveys to detect electoral manipulation in authoritarian regimes. It compares official results from the July 2013 elections in Zimbabwe with findings from a nationally representative pre-election survey. The comparison confirms that the dominant incumbent party won the elections but by far smaller margins than officially reported. This discrepancy provides analytic leverage to identify the possible presence of coercive mobilization and vote suppression and to pinpoint their geographic location. The election results are re-estimated using a set of voting simulations based on novel proxy indicators and an original list experiment designed to reveal the political preferences of fearful voters. The paper concludes by discussing why autocrats manipulate elections and whether or not they succeed in their objectives.