Resumen de Expected sovereign defaults and fiscal consolidations

Werner Roeger

• This paper uses a two region DSGE model for the Euro are a (periphery vs. core) , to analyse the costs of higher sovereign risk premia, the so called 'sovereign risk channel'. We highlight the importance of valuation effects of sovereign bonds in bank balance sheets for the transmission of sovereign default expectations to the private sector. While at the current juncture the fiscal multiplier is larger in the EA periphery, we show that for highly indebted countries in the EA no fiscal consolidation could have more detrimental effects if it leads to expectations of sovereign default. In our view these results provide useful additional information for the debate on fiscal austerity which focusses mainly on the size of the multiplier.