Resumen de Simple Mental Models for Informing Climate Choices

Paul C. Stern, Kaitlin T. Raimi

• Simple mental models, such as the analogy of climate to a greenhouse, are commonly used to convey complex facts of climate dynamics. We consider simple models for climate-related decision support�for informing choices rather than for understanding facts. We identify attributes of �good� simple models both in general and for informing decisions under uncertainty, discuss the strengths and weaknesses of illustrative simple models in the climate domain, and present and assess a medical analogy we believe useful for climate related decision support: thinking of climate change as a serious, progressive disease. Finally, we consider reasonable expectations for the effects of such models.