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Global trade depends on the ability of firms to make credible commitments across borders. Absent a global state to enforce contracts, how can credibility be assured? Today, the majority of significant transborder contract disputes are adjudicated in private arbitral tribunals. The decisions of these bodies are enforceable in the public courts of the 146 countries that have ratified the 1958 New York Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards, making it a central pillar of the global economy. This article evaluates alternative explanations for this widespread delegation to private judicial authority via survival analysis of ratification from 1958 to the present. Unlike the World Trade Organization, preferential trade agreements, or bilateral investment treaties, the transnational commercial arbitration regime has been driven by the diffusion of legal norms through a transnational network of experts
