Acceso usuarios
Philip R. Lane, Barbara Pels
The european crisis is partly atrributable to the sharp increase in external imbalances across Europe during the pre-crisis period. We examine current acoount imbalances in Europe over 1995-2007, together with the underlying saving and investment rates (and their subcomponents). We find that the discrete expansion in current account imbalances during the 2002-2007 period can be attributed to a strengthening in the link between growth forecasts and current account balances. A striking pattern was that greater optimism about future growth was associated with lower savings and higher construction investment, rather than investment in productive capital.
