Resumen de Prospects of regime transformation in Belarus

Vytautas Sirijos Gira, �ivile Dambrauskaite.

• Ever since A. Lukashenka was elected for his first presidential term, and up until the late 1990s, there were claims that his rule was only a temporary and transitional episode in Belarus�s political and economic development. Fifteen years on, there is little doubt that the only transition that has taken place in Belarus since its independence is a drift towards an increasingly authoritarian regime. Nevertheless, although the regime is consolidating it is remarkable how it was built and is currently relying on a surprisingly fragile combination of external and domestic factors.