Acceso usuarios
Benjamin J. Cohen
What are the prospects for today¿s top international currencies in the twenty-first century? This paper explores how the future of the top currencies ¿the dollar, euro and yen¿ will be influenced by three key considerations: the logic of market competition, the strategic preferences of national governments, and prospective technological developments. Analysis suggests little near-term threat to the predominance of today¿s top currencies, though relative standing could be substantially altered by market competition and policy rivalry among issuing authorities. The supremacy of the dollar will be seriously challenged by the euro; the position of the yen, by contrast, is likely gradually to erode over time in a manner reminiscent of sterling¿s long decline in an earlier era. Over the longer term, however, stretching farther into the next century, technological developments could lead to the creation of entirely new rivals to today¿s top currencies: various innovative forms of money based on digital data ¿ collectively known as electronic money ¿ which will eventually begin to substitute in one way or another for bank notes and checking accounts as customary means of payment. Some of these new electronic monies could eventually hold more market appeal than any of today¿s top international currencies.
