Acceso usuarios
Ali Berk, Yusuf Ünsal
This study investigates the presence and temporal dynamics of speculative bubbles in Türkiye’s citrus markets. The analysis is based on seasonal price data covering the 2000/2001 to 2023/2024 marketing years. This study employs the Supremum Augmented Dickey–Fuller (SADF) and Generalized SADF (GSADF) tests to determine whether these surges are attributable to fundamental market forces or speculative behavior. The results indicate the presence of speculative bubble episodes in citrus markets, particularly after 2020. Orange and mandarin prices exhibited persistent speculative patterns over multiple seasons, whereas lemon prices displayed shorter and more delayed bubble episodes. These findings suggest that speculative bubbles are not solely driven by supply and demand dynamics but are also significantly influenced by market uncertainty, asymmetric information, and financialization. The findings underscore the need for early warning systems, enhanced market transparency, and flexible policy interventions to mitigate the impact of speculative bubbles.
