Acceso usuarios
G.Geoffrey Booth, Iordanis Karagiannidis, Feng Shi
The violin was created in northern Italy during the 16th century and became an important contributor to classical music. In this article, we examine the influence network associated with vintage violins (those made from 1590 to 1875) and their market (from 1590 to 2022). Our focus is on violins attributed to the top 30 violin makers (luthiers); their rank is determined by the highest transaction price ever received for one of their violins. Using the Hawkes self- and mutual-exciting point process and Bayesian estimation techniques, we find that a luthier’s past transactions positively influence the fu- ture transactions of other luthiers. The strongest influence, however, is the positive impact of a luthier’s past transactions on his future transactions. The top three luthiers from 1590 to 1875 in terms of total influence are Antonio Stradivari (Cremona, Italy), Giovanni Guadagnini (Turin, Italy), and Jean-Baptiste Vuillaume (Paris, France). From 1876 to 2022 the top three list changes slightly with Giuseppe Guarneri “del Gesù” (Cremona, Italy) replacing Guadagnini. Our results reflect some of the current beliefs of many violin appraisers and illustrate the theoretical and practical impor- tance of networks in understanding economic history.
