Artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons in armed conflicts: Implications for compliance with international humanitarian law

• Vladas Tumalavičius ^[1]
  1. [1] Turība University

     Turība University

     Letonia

     
• Localización: Cadernos de dereito actual, ISSN-e 2386-5229, ISSN 2340-860X, Nº. 31, 2026, págs. 23-40
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    El estudio tiene como objetivo analizar la dinámica del uso de sistemas autónomos, tecnologías de inteligencia artificial y ciberataques en conflictos armados entre 2015 y 2024. El documento también identifica su impacto en el cumplimiento del derecho internacional humanitario. Se aplicó un análisis normativo de las disposiciones de los Convenios de Ginebra, documentos de la ONU, el CICR y el Grupo de Expertos Gubernamentales (GGE). La parte empírica se basó en datos de SIPRI, UCDP y ACLED. El énfasis principal se puso en el análisis de indicadores durante 2021-2024. Estos datos sirvieron de base para realizar análisis de correlación y regresión. Los resultados revelaron la relación entre el nivel de participación tecnológica y el número de violaciones del DIH (r = 0,80 para ciberataques; r = 0,65 para sistemas autónomos). Los mayores riesgos humanitarios se registran en guerras con altas tasas de letalidad y fragmentación (Ucrania, Siria, Sudán e Israel). Por lo tanto, la evolución tecnológica de la guerra ha generado importantes lagunas jurídicas en la regulación de los medios autónomos y cibernéticos. Es necesario actualizar las normas vigentes del DIH, en particular estableciendo el principio del «control humano significativo»

  • English

    The study aims to analyse the dynamics of the use of autonomous systems, artificial intelligence technologies, and cyberattacks in armed conflicts in 2015–2024. The paper also identifies their impact on compliance with international humanitarian law. A normative analysis of the provisions of the Geneva Conventions, UN documents, the ICRC, and the Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) applied. The empirical part was based on SIPRI, UCDP, and ACLED data. The main emphasis was placed on the analysis of indicators during 2021-2024. These data served as the basis for conducting correlation and regression analysis. The results revealed the relationship between the level of technological participation and the number of violations of IHL (r = 0.80 for cyberattacks; r = 0.65 for autonomous systems). The highest humanitarian risks are recorded in wars with high lethality and fragmentation rates (Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, and Israel). Hence, the technological evolution of war has formed important legal gaps in the regulation of autonomous and cyber means. Existing IHL norms need to be updated by establishing the principle of "meaningful human control“

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