Disuasión multiinestable. El poder igualador de la precisión y la guerra de salvas en la tercera era nuclear

• Pulido Pulido, Guillermo ^[1]
  1. [1] Máster en Seguridad, Paz y Defensa
• Localización: Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos, ISSN-e 2255-3479, Nº. 25, 2025, págs. 109-132
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    La proliferación de municiones de precisión de largo alcance conforma un entorno operativo que genera efectos estratégicos, hasta ahora inéditos, que implican una disrupción en los conceptos clásicos sobre disuasión y estabilidad estratégica. En primer lugar, se genera el efecto igualador de la precisión, en el que la proliferación de armas guiadas produce que contendientes muy desiguales en tamaño y potencial puedan causarse un daño masivo mutuo. En segundo lugar, la tendencia a la proliferación de armas de precisión induce a la creación de un nuevo tipo de conflicto militar que denominamos como de «guerra de salvas».En tercer lugar, el daño masivo causado por municiones de precisión convencionales hace emerger el fenómeno estratégico de la disuasión multiinestable. La combinación de todo lo anterior crea un entorno estratégico de tercera era nuclear en el que las armas nucleares fomentan la inestabilidad, en contraposición a la estabilidad de la primera era nuclear de la Guerra Fría, y la escalada.

  • English

    The massive proliferation of long-range precision munitions is transforming strategic stability and the operational environment, introducing unprecedented challenges. This evolution adds to the debates on second and third-era nuclear deterrence, shaping a new stage characterized by the impact of these projectiles on strategic stability.

    Technological innovations are generating unprecedented strategic phenomena, altering the nature of war and giving rise to new forms of conflict. Although academic literature has addressed deterrence and strategic stability, it has overlooked certain aspects that this study aims to analyze.

    The article will review the first and second nuclear eras to contextualize the third, presenting original concepts such as the "equalizing power of precision," "salvo warfare," and "multi-unstable deterrence." Additionally, it introduces a previously unexplored strategic phenomenon: multi-unstable deterrence, which is key to the current dynamics of war.

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