¿El fin de la sorpresa? Un estudio sobre la mutación del elemento sorpresa en el siglo de la (des)información

• Legaz, Antonio ^[1]
  1. [1] Analista de ciberdefensa
• Localización: Revista del Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos, ISSN-e 2255-3479, Nº. 25, 2025, págs. 43-64
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    La revolución en la recolección y análisis de información ha transformado el papel de la sorpresa en la guerra moderna. Las tecnologías de vigilancia, el análisis de big data y la inteligencia artificial han reducido drásticamente la incertidumbre estratégica, limitando la capacidad de los actores para ejecutar ataques sorpresa. Sin embargo, este aparente fin de la sorpresa se enfrenta a un desafío creciente: la desinformación. La proliferación de información falsa, la manipulación de datos y el envenenamiento informativo han generado un nuevo tipo de “niebla de guerra digital”, en la que la sobrecarga de información y el ruido estratégico pueden generar falsas certezas. Este trabajo explora cómo la sorpresa se ha transformado en la era de la información y cómo la lucha entre la transparencia y el engaño sigue definiendo el campo de batalla moderno. Finalmente, se analiza el papel del análisis de inteligencia en la conversión de datos en conocimiento útil, subrayando la importancia de distinguir entre información veraz y manipulación estratégica para evitar vulnerabilidades críticas.

  • English

    The revolution in intelligence gathering and analysis has transformed the role of surprise in modern warfare. Surveillance technologies, Big Data analytics and artificial intelligence have drastically reduced strategic uncertainty, limiting the ability of actors to execute surprise attacks. However, this apparent end of surprise faces a growing challenge: disinformation. The proliferation of false information, data manipulation and information poisoning has generated a new kind of digital fog of war, in which information overload and strategic noise can generate false certainties. This paper explores how surprise has been transformed in the information age and how the struggle between transparency and deception continues to define the modern battlefield. Finally, it discusses the role of intelligence analysis in turning data into useful knowledge, highlighting the importance of distinguishing between truthful information and strategic manipulation in order to avoid critical vulnerabilities.

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