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Madrid, España
Este artículo examina el impacto de la polarización ideológica sobre la confianza social generalizada y la satisfacción con la democracia en Europa con datos de once rondas del European Social Survey (2002–2024). El análisis adopta una perspectiva comparada entre tres bloques regionales: países del sur de Europa (EU Sur), el núcleo histórico de la UE (UE Centro) y países incorporados tras la ampliación de 2004 (UE Ampliada). Se aplican técnicas no paramétricas y modelos de regresión para explorar tres dimensiones: evolución temporal de la confianza, efectos de la ideología política y relación entre confianza social y apoyo democrático. Los resultados muestran que no existe un deterioro uniforme en la confianza interpersonal, sino trayectorias diferenciadas: aumento en UE Ampliada, estabilidad en EU Sur y niveles más altos en UE Centro. Los extremos ideológicos presentan diferentes niveles de confianza y satisfacción democrática, aunque con variaciones regionales. Como contribución principal, la evidencia empírica confirma que la confianza social predice consistentemente la satisfacción con la democracia, con mayor intensidad en contextos institucionales consolidados. El estudio contribuye a comprender el vínculo entre polarización política y capital social, destacando la importancia del contexto regional en el análisis de la legitimidad democrática.
This article examines the impact of ideological polarization on generalized social trust and satisfaction with democracy in Europe using data from eleven rounds of the European Social Survey (2002–2024). The analysis adopts a comparative perspective across three regional blocs: southern European countries (EU South), the historical core of the EU (EU Core), and countries that joined after the 2004 enlargement (EU Enlarged). Non-parametric techniques and regression models are applied to explore three key dimensions: the temporal evolution of trust, the effects of political ideology, and the relationship between social trust and democratic support. The findings show that interpersonal trust has not uniformly declined across Europe; instead, divergent regional trajectories emerge: increasing trust in EU Enlarged, stability in EU South, and higher levels in the EU Core. Individuals at ideological extremes tend to exhibit different levels of trust and democratic satisfaction, though this varies significantly across regions. As a main contribution, empirical evidence confirms that social trust consistently predicts satisfaction with democracy, especially in countries with stronger democratic institutions. The study contributes to the understanding of the link between political polarization and social capital, highlighting the relevance of regional context in analyzing democratic legitimacy.
This article examines the impact of ideological polarization on generalized social trust and satisfaction with democracy in Europe, using data from eleven rounds of the European Social Survey (2002–2024). The analysis adopts a comparative perspective across three regional blocs: southern European countries (EU South), the historical core of the EU (EU Core), and countries that joined after the 2004 enlargement (EU Enlarged). Non-parametric techniques and regression models are applied to explore three key dimensions: the temporal evolution of trust, the effects of political ideology, and the relationship between social trust and democratic support. The findings show that interpersonal trust has not uniformly declined across Europe; instead, divergent regional trajectories emerge: increasing trust in EU Enlarged, stability in EU South, and higher levels in the EU Core. Individuals at ideological extremes tend to exhibit lower levels of trust and democratic satisfaction, though this varies significantly across regions. Moreover, social trust consistently predicts satisfaction with democracy, especially in countries with stronger democratic institutions. The study contributes to the understanding of the link between political polarization and social capital, highlighting the relevance of regional context in analyzing democratic legitimacy.
