Fiscal Forecast Errors in the Eurozone: The Influence of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) and Monetary Policy

• Autores: Antonio Nicolás Lorenti, Miguel Angoitia Grijalba, Daniel Fernández Romero, Rubén Mora Ruano
• Localización: Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, ISSN 0210-1173, Nº 254, 2025, págs. 119-156
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Acconcia, A., Corsetti, G. and Simonelli, S. (2014), “Mafia and public spending: Evidence on the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment”,...
  • Ademmer and Boysen-Hogrefe (2022), “The Impact of Forecast Errors on Fiscal Planning and Debt Accumulation”, Journal of Economics and Statistics,...
  • Amberg, N., Jansson, T., Klein, M. and Picco, A. (2022), “Five facts about the distributional income effects of monetary policy shocks”, American...
  • Armingeon, K., Engler, S. and Leemann, L. (2022), Comparative Political Data Set 1960-2020, Department of Political Science, University of...
  • Artis, M. and Marcellino, M. (2001), “Fiscal forecasting: the track record of the IMF, OCDE and EC”, Econometrics Journal, 4 (1): S20-S36.
  • Autoridad Independiente de Responsabilidad Fiscal (2021), “Las Instituciones Fiscales Independientes en la Unión Europea (2021)”, Documento...
  • Baldacci, E. and Kumar, M. (2010), “Fiscal deficits, public debt, and sovereign bonds yield”, Working Paper, 10/184, International Monetary...
  • Barbieri Goes, M. and Deleidi, M. (2022), “Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: an empirical investigation for the US economy”,...
  • Barroso, J. and Ferreira, H. (2015), “Empirical evidence on fiscal forecasting in Eurozone countries”, Journal of Economic Studies, 42(5):...
  • Beetsma, R., Bluhm, B., Giuliodori, M. and Wierts, P. (2013a), “From Budgetery Forecasts to ex post fiscal data: exploring the evolution of...
  • Beetsma, R., Giuliodori, M., Walschot, M. and Wierts, P. (2013b), “Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands”,...
  • Beetsma, R., Debrun, X., Fang, X., Kim, Y., Lledó, V., Mbaye, S. and Zhang, X. (2019), “Independent fiscal councils: Recent trends and performance”,...
  • Beetsma, R., Busse, M., Germinetti, L., Giuliodori, M. and Larch, M. (2023), “Is the road to hell paved with good intentions? An empirical...
  • Bernanke, B. (2020), “The new tools of monetary policy”, American Economic Review, 110(4): 943-983.
  • Boukari, M. and Veiga, F. J. (2018), “Disentangling political and institutional determinants of budget forecast errors: A comparative approach”,...
  • Bohn,F. and Veiga, F. J. (2021), “Political Forecast Cycle”, European Journal of Political Economy, 66, issue C.
  • Born, B., Juessen, F. and Müller, G. J. (2013), “Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers”, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,...
  • Born, B., D’Ascanio, F., Müller, G. J. and Pfeifer, J. (2024), “Mr. Keynes meets the classics: government spending and the real exchange rate”,...
  • Brück, T. and Stephan, A. (2006), “Do Eurozone countries cheat with their budget deficit forecasts?”, Kyklos, 59(1): 3-15.
  • Canova, F. and Pappa, E. (2011), “Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accommodation”, Economic Policy, 26(68): 555-598.
  • Căpraru, B., Georgescu, G. and Sprincean, N. (2022), “Do independent fiscal institutions cause better fiscal outcomes in the European Union?”,...
  • Castelnuovo, E. and Surico, P. (2010), “Monetary policy, inflation expectations and the price puzzle”, Economic Journal, 120(549): 1262-1283.
  • Chabin, A., Lamproye, S. and VýÅ¡krabka,M. (2020), “Are We More Accurate? Revisiting the European Commission’s Macroeconomic Forecasts”, European...
  • Chrysanthakopoulos, C. and Tagkalakis, A. (2022), “Do fiscal councils reduce fiscal policy procyclicality?”, Applied Economics Letters, 1-4.
  • Chrysanthakopoulos, C. and Tagkalakis, A. (2023), “The effects of fiscal institutions on fiscal adjustment”, Journal of International Money...
  • Cimadomo, J. (2012), “Fiscal policy in real time”, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 114(2): 440-465.
  • Cloyne, J. S., Jordà, Ò. a M. (2020), “Decomposing the fiscal multiplier”, (No. w26939), National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., Kueng, L. and Silvia, J. (2017), “Innocent bystanders? Monetary policy and inequality”, Journal of Monetary...
  • Corbi, R., Papaioannou, E. and Surico, P. (2019), “Regional transfer multipliers”, The Review of Economic Studies, 86(5): 1901-1934.
  • Corsetti, G., Meier, A., Müller, G. J. and Devereux, M. B. (2012), “What determines government spending multipliers?”, Economic Policy, 27(72):...
  • Corsetti, G., Duarte, J. and Mann, S. (2022), “One money, many markets”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(1): 513-548.
  • Crafts, N. and Mills, T. C. (2013), “Rearmament to the rescue? New estimates of the impact of Keynesian policies in 1930s’ Britain”, The Journal...
  • Cronin, D. and McInerney, N. (2023), “Official fiscal forecasts in EU member states under the Euro- pean Semester and Fiscal Compact An empirical...
  • Debrun, X. and Kinda, T. (2017), “Strengthening post-crisis fiscal credibility: fiscal councils on the rise a new dataset”, Fiscal Studies,...
  • Debrun, X., Moulin, L., Turrini, A., Ayuso-i-Casals, J. and Kumar, M. S. (2008), “Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European...
  • De Castro, F., Pérez, J. J. and Rodríguez‐Vives, M. (2013), “Fiscal data revisions in Europe”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 45(6):...
  • Deroose, S., Moulin, L. and Wierts, P. (2006), “National expenditure rules and expenditure outcomes: Evidence for EU member states”, Wirschaftspolitische...
  • Eickmeier, S., Hofmann, B. and Worms, A. (2009), “Macroeconomic fluctuations and bank lending: Evidence for Germany and the euro area”, German...
  • European Commission (2019), “Vade Mecum on the Stability and Growth Pact, 2019 edition”, Institutional Paper, 121, April 2019.
  • European Parliament and Council of the European Union. (2024), “Regulation (EU) 2024/1263 of the European Parliament and of the Council of...
  • Fernández-Romero, D. (2025), “The fiscal multiplier in presence of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence for 17 OECD countries”, Economic...
  • Fabrizio, S. and Mody, A. (2006), “Can budget institutions counteract political indiscipline?”, Economic Policy, 21(48): 690-739.
  • Flores, E. J., Furceri, D., Kothari, S. and Ostry, J. D. (2023), “Worse than you think: Public debt forecast errors in advanced and developing...
  • Forni, M. and Gambetti, L. (2010), “The dynamic effects of monetary policy: a structural factor model approach”, Journal of Monetary Economics,...
  • Frankel, J. (2011a), “A solution to fiscal procyclicality: the structural budget institutions pioneered by Chile”, Working paper, 16945, National...
  • Frankel, J. (2011b), “Over-optimism in forecasts by official budget agencies and its implications”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 27(4):...
  • Frankel, J. and Schreger, J. (2013), “Over-optimistic official forecasts and fiscal rules in the Eurozone”, Review of World Economics, 149:...
  • Frankel, J. and Schreger, J. (2016), “Bias in official fiscal forecasts: can private forecasts help? National Bureau of Economic Research”,...
  • Gertler, M. and Karadi, P. (2015), “Monetary policy surprises, credit costs, and economic activity”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,...
  • Gilbert, N. D. and De Jong, J. F. (2017), “Do European fiscal rules induce a bias in fiscal forecasts? Evidence from the Stability and Growth...
  • Gootjes, B. and De Haan, J. (2022), “Procyclicality of fiscal policy in European Union countries”, Journal of International Money and Finance,...
  • Guajardo, J., Leigh, D. and Pescatori, A. (2014), “Expansionary austerity? International evidence”, Journal of the European Economic Association,...
  • Hadzi-Vaskov, M., Werner, A. M. and Zamarripa, R. (2021), “Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America: Are They Optimistic?”, IMF Working...
  • Harding, M. and Klein, M. (2022), “Monetary policy and household net worth”, Review of Economic Dynamics, 44(2): 125-151.
  • Havránek, T. and Rusnak, M. (2012), “Transmission lags of monetary policy: A meta-analysis”, IES working paper, 27/2012.
  • Heinemann, F. (2006), “Planning or propaganda? An evaluation of Germany’s medium-term budgetary planning”, FinanzArchiv/Public Finance Analysis,...
  • Hohberger, S., Priftis, R. and Vogel, L. (2019), “The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the euro area: evidence from an estimated...
  • Ilzetzki, E., Mendoza, E. G., and Végh, C. A. (2013), “How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?”, Journal of monetary economics, 60(2): 239-254.
  • Jarociński, M. and Karadi, P. (2020), “Deconstructing monetary policy surprises the role of information shocks”, American Economic Journal:...
  • Jonung, L. and Larch, M. (2006), “Improving fiscal policy in the EU: the case for independent forecasts”, Economic Policy, 21(47): 491-534.
  • JurkÅ¡as, L. and Pereira, F. G. (2024), “Fiscal stance role for ECB monetary policy”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 46: 1210-1227.
  • Kato, A., Miyamoto, W., Nguyen, T. L. and Sergeyev, D. (2018), “The effects of tax changes at the zero lower bound: Evidence from Japan”,...
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M. (2010), “The worldwide governance indicators: methodology and analytical issues”, World Bank Policy...
  • Kerssenfischer, M. (2019), “The puzzling effects of monetary policy in VARs: invalid identification or missing information?”, Journal of Applied...
  • Kliesen, K. L. and Thornton, D. L. (2012), “How good are the government’s deficit and debt projections and should we care?”, Federal Reserve...
  • Larch, M., Orseau, E. and Van Der Wielen, W. (2021), “Do EU fiscal rules support or hinder counter-cyclical fiscal policy?”, Journal of International...
  • Liargovas, P. and Pilichos, V. (2022), “Is EU fiscal governance effective? A case study for the period 1999-2019”, Economies, 10(187).
  • Maltritz, D. and Wüste, S. (2015), “Determinants of budget deficits in Europe: The role and relations of fiscal rules, fiscal councils, creative...
  • Martins, P. and Correia, L. (2021), “Fiscal institutions: different classifications and their effectiveness”, Eurasian Economic Review, 11:...
  • Merola, R. and Pérez, J. J. (2013), “Fiscal forecast errors: governments versus independent agencies?”, European Journal of Political Economy,...
  • Milesi-Ferretti, G. and Moriyama, K. (2004), “Fiscal adjustment in EU countries: a balance sheet approach”, Working Paper, 04/143, International...
  • Miranda-Agrippino, S. and Ricco, G. (2021), “The transmission of monetary policy shocks”, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 13(3):...
  • Miyamoto, W., Nguyen, T. L. and Sergeyev, D. (2018), “Government spending multipliers under the zero lower bound: Evidence from Japan”, American...
  • Nakamura, E. and Steinsson, J. (2014), “Fiscal stimulus in a monetary union: Evidence from US regions”, American Economic Review, 104(3):...
  • Nerlich, C. and Reuter, W. H. (2013), “The design of national fiscal frameworks and their budgetary impact”, ECB Working Paper, 1588, European...
  • Pagliari, M. S. (2024), “Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies”,...
  • Pappas, A. and Kostakis, I. (2020), “The driving factors of EMU government bond yields: The role of debt, liquidity and fiscal councils”,...
  • Perotti, R. (1998), “The political economy of fiscal consolidations”, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 100(1): 367-94.
  • Perotti, R. and Kontopoulos, Y. (2002), “Fragmented fiscal policy”, Journal of Public Economics, 86: 191-222.
  • Pina, A. M. and Venes, N. M. (2011), “The political economy of EDP fiscal forecasts: An empirical assessment”, European Journal of Political...
  • Protrafke, N. (2011), “Does government ideology influence budget composition? Empirical evidence from OCDE countries”, Economics of governance,...
  • Ramey, V. A. and Zubairy, S. (2018), “Government spending multipliers in good times and in bad: evidence from US historical data”, Journal...
  • Rüth, S. (2020), “Shifts in monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: is Dornbusch’s overshooting hypothesis intact, after all?”, Journal...
  • Strauch, R., Hallerberg, M. and Von Hagen, J., (2004), “Budgetary forecasts in Europe-the track record of stability and convergence programmes”,...
  • Von Hagen, J. (2010), “Sticking to fiscal plans: the role of institutions”, Public Choice, 144: 487-503.
  • Wildowicz-Giegel, A. (2019), “The role of independent fiscal councils in improving fiscal performance of the European Union Countries”, Equilibrium....
  • Wu, J. and Xia, F. (2016), “Measuring the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy at the Zero Lower Bound”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,...