La carencia de liderazgos internacionales y la posible emergencia de “Lula 3.0” en el contexto global

• Autores: Waldimeiry Corrêa da Silva
• Localización: Revista electrónica de estudios internacionales (REEI), ISSN-e 1697-5197, Nº. 49, 2025, págs. 151-181
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.36151/reei.49.06
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen

  • El presente estudio pretende responder a la siguiente pregunta de investigación: ante la policrisis que afecta a la gobernanza internacional, ¿podría el presidente Luis Inacio Lula da Silva (Lula) resurgir como líder Internacional? Con este fin, se presenta un marco teórico-conceptual sobre el escenario policrisis que impacta directamente en el orden internacional, el multilateralismo y la gobernanza, para luego analizar la noción e importancia del liderazgo en las Relaciones Internacionales (RR.II.). Lo anterior posibilita llevar a cabo un estudio de caso del inicio del tercer gobierno de Lula (2023-2026/Lula 3.0), para responder si cumple con los requisitos de un liderazgo. Los resultados indican que, pese al capital político internacional, habilidades personales, empeño y capacidad de negociación, Lula 3.0 necesita superar algunos desafíos internos y externos para lograr el liderazgo (nacional, regional e internacional) que obtuvo en sus mandatos anteriores.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • AHLQUIST, J.S. y MARGARET, L., “Leadership: What It Means, What It Does, and What We Want to Know About It”, Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 2011,...
  • ALLISON, G. Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017.
  • AMORIN, C. “Discurso do Embaixador Celso Amorim na cerimônia de transmissão do cargo de Ministro de Estado das Relações Exteriores – Brasília,...
  • BA, A., “Who’s socializing whom? Complex engagement in Sino-ASEAN relations”, The Pacific Review, Vol.2, 2006, pp. 157-179, p. 168.
  • BA, A.D. y HOFFMANN, M.J., Contending Perspectives on Global Governance. Coherence, Contesta tion and World Order, Londres/Nueva York, Routledge,...
  • BARNETT, M. y DUVALL, R. (eds)., Power in Global Governance, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2005.
  • BARNETT, M., “COVID-19 and the Sacrificial International Order”, International Organization, 74, Su pplement 2020, pp. 1-20.
  • BARNETT, M., “COVID-19 and the Sacrificial International Order”, International Organization, 74, Supplement 2020, pp. 1-20.
  • BASRUR, R. y KLIEM, F., “Covid19 and international cooperation: IR paradigms at odds”, SN Soc Sci, 2021, pp. 1-7.
  • BRADFORD, C. I. y LIMA, W., Global Leadership in Transition: Making the G20 More Effective and Responsive, Brookings Institution Press, 2011,...
  • BRUNNER, R., & LYNCH, A. “Adaptive Governance”, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Climate Sci ence, 2017.
  • BUGIATO, C., “A importância do BNDES na política externa do governo Lula”, Cadernos do desenvolvi mento, 12, 21, 2017, pp. 54–64.
  • BURGES, S. “Thinking through Brazil’s strategic leadership gap. In: HANNES, E.; Flemes, D. (Ed) Regional Powers and Contested Leadership....
  • BURGES, S.W. “Revisiting consensual hegemony: Brazilian regional leadership in question”. International Politics, 52 (2), 2015, pp. 193-207;
  • BUSBY, J.W., “Understanding the Anemic Global Response to COVID-19”, J Health Polit Policy Law, 45, 6, 2020, pp. 1013–1021.
  • CLARK, I., Hegemony in International Society, New York, Oxford University Press, 2011.
  • COX, J. F., PEARCE, C. L., y PERRY, M. L., “Toward A Model Of Shared Leadership And Distributed Influence In The Innovation Process: How Shared...
  • CRIVELLI MINUTTI, E; CEJUDO MEJORADA, T., “El liderazgo ausente de los Estados Unidos en el siglo XXI.”, Revista de Filosofía Ὁδός X, 12,...
  • DA SILVA, J.G, DEL GROSSI, M.E. y FRANÇA, C.G. (eds.). Fome Zero (Programa Hambre Cero). La experiencia brasileña, Ministerios del Desarrollo...
  • DAY, A. The Forever Crisis: Adaptive Global Governance for an Era of Accelerating Complexity. London and New York: Routledge, 2025 (https://iefworld.org/Dahl_forever);...
  • DESTRADI, S., “Regional powers and their strategies: empire, hegemony, and leadership”, Review of International Studies, 36, 2010, pp. 903-930.
  • DETLEF, N.; SCHENONI, L. L. “To lead or not to lead: regional powers and regional leadership”. Inter national Politics. 61, 2024, pp.40–59.
  • DINGWERTH, K y PHILIPP P., “Global Governance as a Perspective on World Politics”, Global Gover nance, vol.12, n.2, 2006, pp. 185-203.
  • DREZNER, D., “The Song Remains the Same: International Relations After COVID-19”, International Organization, 74(S1), 2020, pp. 18-35.
  • DUNFORD, M. y BING, Q., “Global reset: COVID-19, systemic rivalry and the global order.”, Research in Globalization, 2, 2020; GILL, S., Global...
  • EATWELL, R. National populism: The revolt against liberal democracy. Penguin UK, 2018.
  • FORTIN, C, HEINE J. y OMINAMI, C., Latin American Foreign Policies in the New World Order. The Active Non-Alignment Option, Anthem Press ,...
  • FRAUNDORFER, M., “Fome zero para o mundo – a Difusão global brasileira do Programa fome zero.”, Austral: Revista Brasileira de Estratégia...
  • FRENCH, J.D.(2022). Lula e a política da astúcia: de metalúrgico a presidente do Brasil. Expressão Popular/Fundação Perseu Abramo: Sao Paulo....
  • FUKUYAMA, F., MCFAUL, M., & ব্যবস্থা, স. Digital democracy: A new era of autocracy and democra cy. Johns Hopkins University Press, 2021.
  • FUNDACIÓN CAROLINA/SANAHUJA, J.A. y STEFANONI, P. (eds.), América latina: Transicio nes¿hacia dónde? Informe anual 2022-2023, Fundación Carolina,...
  • GARDINI, G. L. (Coord.), El mundo antes y después del Covid-19 Reflexiones intelectuales sobre política, diplomacia y relaciones internacionales,...
  • GARRETT, G. “Global markets and national politics: Collisions and compromises”, International Organi zation, 54(2), 2000, pp.315-345. (318).
  • GILL, S., Global Crises and the Crisis of Global Leadership, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2012.
  • GILL, S.R., “Gobernanza Global: “Cómo Era, Es y Debería Ser. Una Reflexión Crítica”, Foro Internacio nal, LX, 2020, 4:242, p.1268.
  • GILPIN, R., War and Change in World Politics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1981.
  • GOETHALS, G. R., SORENSON, G. J., y BURNS, J. M., Encyclopedia of Leadership, Thousand Oaks, Sage Publications, 2004.
  • GRINT, K., The arts of Leardership, Oxford, Oxford university Presss, 2000
  • HELLEINER, E. Economic Globalization’s Polycrisis, International Studies Quarterly, Volume 68, Issue 2, June 2024, p.5
  • HELMS, L., “Global political leadership in the twenty-first century: problems and prospects”, Contempo rary Politics, 20, 3, 2014, pp. 261-277.
  • HOCH, J., “Shared Leadership and Innovation: The Role of Vertical Leadership and Employee Integrity”, Journal of Business and Psychology,...
  • HOLLANDER, E. P., “Leadership, Followership, Self, and Others”, The Leadership Quarterly, Vol. 3, núm. 1, 1992, pp. 43-54.
  • IKENBERRY, G. J. “The plot against American foreign policy: Can the liberal order survive?” Foreign Affairs, 97(3), 2018, pp.70-82
  • JOHNSON, T., “Ordinary Patterns in an Extraordinary Crisis: How International Relations Makes Sense of the COVID-19 Pandemic”, International...
  • JONES, E., “Elusive Power, Essential Leadership”, Survival, vol. 51, n.º 3, June–July 2009, pp. 243–252;
  • KENKEL, K. M.; Cunliffe, P. “Brazil as a Rising Power: Intervention Norms and the Contestation of Global Order”. Routledge, NY, 2016.
  • KEOHANE, R., International Institutions and State Power – Essays In International Relations Theory, New York, Routledge, 2010.
  • KINDLEBERGER, C., The World in Depression, 1929-1939, Berkeley, University of California Press, 1973.
  • KLEIN, N. On fire: The (burning) case for a green new deal. Simon and Schuster, 2019, p. 112.
  • KOENIG, N. & KUMP, I. “Brazil: Lula Land”. Munich Security Report 2025, pp. 103-104. Disponible en: https://securityconference.org/en/publications/munich-security-report-2025/brazil/
  • KRASNER, S. D., Soberanía, hipocresía organizada, Barcelona, Paidós, 2001, p. 66.
  • LAWRENCE, M., HOMER-DIXON, T., JANZWOOD, S., ROCKSTÖM, J., RENN, O., & DONGES, J. F. (2024). Global polycrisis: the causal mechanisms...
  • LEBOW, R.L., Forbidden Fruit: Counterfactuals and International Relations, Princeton University Press, 2010.
  • LI, Mingjiang. The Belt and Road Initiative: geo-economics and Indo-Pacific security competition, Inter national Affairs, Volume 96, Issue...
  • LÓPEZ, Osvaldo. Brasil: El desafío de aumentar la productiv idad de la economía. https://www.caf.com/es/conocimiento/visiones/2022/08/brasil-el-desafio-de-aumen...
  • LUCARELLI, S., “The EU’s Leadership in the Global Governance: Perceptions from the Others”; Safty, A. (Ed.), Leadership and Global Governance...
  • MAGNOTTA, F. I. “The Power and the Pragmatism”. The Ideas Letter. 11/04/2024. Disponible en: ht tps://www.theideasletter.org/essay/the-power-and-the-pragmatism/
  • MEARSHEIMER, J. J. Why the Ukraine crisis is the West’s fault: The liberal delusions that provoked Putin. Foreign Affairs, 93(5), 1-12, 2022,...
  • MEARSHEIMER, J., The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, N.Y/London, W.W. Norton & Company, 2001.
  • MELLADO PRADO, P., “La integra ción europea: historia de una policrisis”, Revista de Derecho de la Unión Europea, 32, 2018, pp. 19–35.
  • MOLTER, V. “Mask diplomacy: Chinese Narratives in the COVID Era”. Free man Spogli Institute for International Studies. June 16, 2020. Disponible...
  • MORIN, E. y KERN, A. B., Homeland Earth: A Manifesto for the New Millennium, Cresskill, N.J, Hamp ton Press, 1999, p. 74.
  • MUDDE, C. The far right today. Polity Press, 2019, p.45
  • NABERS, D., “Leadership and Discursive Hegemony in International Politics”. Paper prepared for the 1st Regional Powers Network Conference,...
  • NABERS, D., “Power, leadership and hegemony in international politics: The Case of East Asia”, Review of International Studies, vol. 12, N.1,...
  • NEWMAN, E.; THAKUR, R. and TIRMAN, J. (Ed.), Multilateralism under challenge? Power, interna tional order, and structural change, United Nation...
  • NORTH, D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge university press, p. 97.
  • NORTHOUSE, P.G., Leadership: Theory and research, Thousand Oaks, Sage Publications, 1997.
  • NYE, J.S., Las cualidades del líder, Barcelona, Paidós, 2011.
  • PAPPE, I. The ethnic cleansing of Palestine. Yale University Press, 2006, p. 87.
  • PEI, M., “China in Xi’s ‘New Era’: A Play for Global Leadership”, Journal of Democracy, vol. 29, no. 2, 2018, pp. 37-51. Véase también China...
  • QUEREJAZU, A. “Comprendiendo y cuestionando la gobernanza global”. Colombia Internacional, [S. l.], v. 1, n. 102, p. 63–86, 2020, p. 79. Disponível...
  • RODRIGUES, G.M.A. “¿Autonomía Pragmática? La Nueva Política Exterior De Lula”, Análisis Carolina 7/2023ES, p.8 Disponible en: https://ecfr.eu/publication/brazil-europes-bridge-to-the-global-south/
  • ROSENAU, J.N., “Governance in a New Global Order”, en HELD, D. y MCGREW Anthony, A. (eds.), Governing Globalization, Nueva York, Blackwell...
  • SABATIER, P. A., & Jenkins-Smith, H. C. “Policy change and learning: An advocacy coalition approach” Westview Press, 1993.
  • SAID, E. W. The politics of dispossession: The struggle for Palestinian self-determination 1969-1994. Pantheon Books, 1994, p.132
  • SANAHUJA J.A. y STEFANONI, P. (eds.), América latina: Transiciones ¿hacia dónde? Informe anual 2022-2023, Fundación Carolina, Madrid, 2022,...
  • SCHIRM, S.A., “Leaders in need of followers: Emerging powers in global governance”, European Journal of International Relations, 16, 2, 2010,...
  • SEGAL, S. “Lula’s Opportunity to Lead the Region”. Americas Quarterly. 23/04/2023.
  • SHAMBAUGH, D. China’s leaders: From Mao to Xi. Polity Press, 2020.
  • SLAUGHTER, A. M. A new world order. Princeton University Press. 2004, p. 193.
  • STUENKEL, O., “What Lula Means for Latin America. Con Lula, Brasil puede asumir el liderazgo regio nal. ¿Lo hará?”, Amercias Quarterly. 25/04/2023
  • SWAINE, M. D. “Chinese views of and responses to the Belt and Road Initiative”, China Leadership Mon itor, 59, 2019, 1-24.
  • TOOZE, A., Definir la policrisis: de la imagen a la matrix de la crisis, 26/06/2022.
  • TURZI, M., “The Age of Pressure Politics?”, Global Policy, 2020.
  • UHL-BIEN, M., “Relational Leadership Theory: Exploring the Social Processes of Leadership and Organizing”, en WERHANE P. y PAINTER-MORLAND,...
  • VU, T.M., “International Leadership as a Process: The case of China in Southeast Asia”, RBPI, Vol.60, N. 1, 2017, pp.1-21.
  • WADE, R. H. “What strategies are viable for developing countries today? The World Trade Organization and the shrinking of ‘development space’”,...
  • WALTZ, K.N., Theory of International Politics, Massachusetts, Addison-Wesley Publishing Cia., 1979.
  • WENDT, A., “La anarquía es lo que los estados hacen de ella. La construcción social de la política de poder”, Revista Académica de Relaciones...
  • WONG, B. China’s Mask Diplomacy. The Diplomat, March 25, 2020. Disponible en https://thediplomat.com/2020/03/chinas-mask-diplomacy/.
  • YERGIN, D. The new map: Energy, climate, and the clash of nations. Penguin Pres, 2022, p. 45
  • YOUNG, O., “Political leadership and regime formation: on the development of institutions in interna tional society”, International Organization,...