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In this article, we assess the importance of alternative pathways via vocational schools and vocational education and training (VET) for social differences in the transition into higher education in Germany. Drawing on data from the DZHW Panel of School Leavers 2018, we use sequence analysis to identify both classical and alternative pathways to obtaining a higher education entrance certificate. We then apply logistic regressions and decomposition techniques to examine the variation in the probability of studying for each pathway compared to the classical pathway through general upper secondary school. Finally, we investigate the underlying reasons for these social differences. We show that the graduates in our analysis take six distinct and socially selective pathways to a higher education entrance certificate, four of which have strong vocational elements. All pathways differ in their study probability: Graduates of almost all alternative educational pathways are less likely to opt for higher education than graduates of the classical pathway. However, this is not solely due to the different composition of graduates in terms of social origin and school performance. Although graduates from less privileged social backgrounds and with lower school performance are disproportionately represented in the alternative pathways, they also differ in their assessment of the costs, benefits, and probabilities of success of investing in higher education. Finally, differences in study probability can be explained by several theoretical mechanisms, the individual explanatory power of which varies according to the pathways.
