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This study employs a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis to explore how combinations of demand- and supply-side factors jointly shape the scale of government-nonprofit contracting in social services across 38 Chinese cities. Our analysis reveals a huge disparity by identifying two pathways to large-scale government contracting for “to-have” (well-resourced cities with low service needs but a well-developed nonprofit sector) versus the other two pathways to small-scale government contracting for “to-have-not” (poorly-resourced cities with an underdeveloped nonprofit sector struggling with meeting high service needs). The study contributes to the literature by highlighting how different demand- and supply-side factors can complement each other to form different combinations in shaping the scale of government contracting with new empirical evidence from an authoritarian context. The rise of government-nonprofit contracting in China is more supply-driven, reflecting the government's active role in cultivating the nonprofit sector development. The findings also raise an important policy issue of accessibility and equity in social service provision.
